Predicting what will close.
WHY IT MATTERS
Commitments are made on forecasts: hiring, spending, promises.
WHAT MAKES FORECASTS WRONG
Optimism Deals included on hope Dates set by the seller rather than the buyer
WHAT TO BASE A FORECAST ON
What the buyer has actually done.
WHAT COUNTS AS EVIDENCE
Budget confirmed Decision-maker engaged Process understood A date they stated
WHAT DOES NOT COUNT
Enthusiasm A proposal sent A meeting held
WHAT TO ASK ABOUT EVERY FORECAST DEAL
What would have to happen for this not to close.
WHY
The answer reveals the actual risk.
WHAT CATEGORIES TO USE
Committed, likely, possible.
WHAT COMMITTED SHOULD MEAN
Everything agreed, awaiting formality.
WHAT TO DO WITH DEALS THAT SLIP REPEATEDLY
Move them out, or close them.
WHY
Repeated slippage indicates a deal that is not real.
WHAT TO TRACK
Forecast against actual, over time.
WHAT THAT REVEALS
Your own optimism factor.
WHAT TO DO WITH IT
Adjust future forecasts accordingly.
WHAT TO AVOID
Forecasting what management wants to hear.
WHY
It causes decisions that cannot be supported.
