Writing about what might happen.
WHY IT IS DIFFICULT
Readers want certainty, and honest answers rarely provide it.
WHAT TO AVOID
False confidence Hedging so heavily that nothing is said
WHY BOTH FAIL
One misleads; the other is useless.
WHAT TO STATE
What you know What you do not What you assume What would change the answer
WHY THE LAST POINT MATTERS MOST
It tells the reader what to watch.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT ESTIMATES
Give a range, and say what it assumes.
WHAT TO AVOID
A single figure for something uncertain.
WHY
It is treated as a commitment.
WHAT LANGUAGE TO USE FOR LIKELIHOOD
Consistent terms, defined if necessary.
WHY
Likely and possible mean different things to different readers.
WHAT TO QUANTIFY WHERE POSSIBLE
Probability, or at least relative likelihood.
WHAT TO STATE ABOUT CONSEQUENCES
What happens if it occurs What it would cost What reduces it
WHY
Risk is likelihood and impact together.
WHAT TO RECOMMEND
What you would do, given the uncertainty.
WHY
Presenting uncertainty without a recommendation transfers your work.
WHAT TO REVISIT
The assessment, as information arrives.
WHAT TO RECORD
What you said, and when.
