Predicting effort.
WHY ESTIMATES ARE WRONG
Unknowns are discovered during the work, not before it.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT THAT
Break work into pieces small enough to understand.
WHY
Small pieces are estimated far more accurately than large ones.
WHAT TO INCLUDE THAT PEOPLE OMIT
Testing Responsive behaviour and every state Review and revision Deployment Content population Communication and meetings
WHAT USUALLY TAKES LONGEST
Integration with other systems Anything depending on a third party Content
WHAT TO STATE
Assumptions, explicitly.
WHY
Estimates are conditional, and unstated conditions become disputes.
WHAT TO PROVIDE
A range, not a single figure.
WHAT TO TRACK
Actual against estimated.
WHY
It is the only way estimates improve.
WHAT YOU WILL FIND
A consistent bias, which can be corrected once known.
WHAT TO AVOID
Estimating under pressure Estimating something you do not understand
