Preparing for more than one future.
WHY IT HELPS
A single forecast is certainly wrong, and planning around it is fragile.
WHAT TO BUILD
Several plausible pictures of how things could develop.
HOW MANY
Few: a likely case, a difficult case, and perhaps a favourable one.
WHAT TO VARY
The factors that matter most and are least certain.
WHAT THOSE TYPICALLY ARE
Demand Input costs Exchange rates, where relevant Competition Regulation
WHAT TO ESTABLISH FOR EACH SCENARIO
What the business would look like Whether it survives What you would do
WHY THAT LAST POINT
It is the value of the exercise.
WHAT TO IDENTIFY
Actions that are sensible in every scenario.
WHY
Those can be taken now, with confidence.
WHAT TO IDENTIFY ALSO
Decisions that depend on which scenario develops.
WHAT TO ESTABLISH FOR THOSE
The indicator that would tell you which is happening The point at which you must decide
WHY A DECISION POINT
Waiting for certainty means deciding too late.
WHAT TO MONITOR
Those indicators.
WHAT TO AVOID
Elaborate scenarios that consume effort and change nothing.
WHAT TO KEEP
Simple, and focused on decisions.
WHAT TO REVIEW
Which scenario is actually developing.
WHAT TO DO
Adjust, as evidence accumulates.
