Choosing under uncertainty.
WHAT MAKES THEM DIFFICULT
Incomplete information Consequences that are hard to reverse Competing considerations Personal stakes
WHAT TO ESTABLISH FIRST
What decision is actually being made.
WHY
Discussions frequently proceed without agreement on the question.
WHAT TO IDENTIFY
The options, including doing nothing.
WHY DOING NOTHING
It is always an option and it is frequently omitted.
WHAT TO ESTABLISH FOR EACH OPTION
What it costs What it produces What could go wrong How reversible it is
WHY REVERSIBILITY MATTERS MOST
Reversible decisions can be made quickly; irreversible ones deserve more care.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT REVERSIBLE DECISIONS
Decide and move.
WHY
Deliberating over them wastes more than the error would cost.
WHAT TO DO ABOUT IRREVERSIBLE ONES
Gather more information, and consider whether a smaller reversible step exists.
WHAT TO ASK
What would have to be true for this to be right.
WHY THAT QUESTION
It exposes the assumptions and makes them testable.
WHAT TO SEEK
A view from someone without a stake.
WHY
Their assessment is not distorted by what you want.
WHAT TO AVOID
Deciding while exhausted or under pressure Continuing because of what has been invested Deciding by not deciding
WHY THAT LAST POINT
Delay is a decision, made badly.
WHAT TO RECORD
The decision, the reasoning and the expected outcome.
WHAT TO REVIEW
Whether it worked.
