Holding views appropriately.
WHAT IS GENUINELY UNCERTAIN
Which networks persist Whether applications reach substantial non-speculative use How regulation settles What value these assets hold
WHAT HAS BEEN PREDICTED CONFIDENTLY AND WRONGLY
Both collapse and universal adoption, repeatedly, over many years.
WHAT THAT SUGGESTS
Confident prediction in either direction is unwarranted.
WHAT HAS DEMONSTRABLY HAPPENED
Networks operating continuously for many years Very large sums lost to fraud and failure Genuine use for cross-border transfer Substantial speculation Regulatory frameworks emerging
WHAT REMAINS UNPROVEN
Whether most applications solve problems better than alternatives.
WHAT TO WATCH
Use that is not trading Regulation settling Whether costs fall enough for ordinary use Whether security improves
WHAT TO AVOID
Positions held for identity rather than evidence Dismissal that prevents recognising real developments Enthusiasm that prevents recognising fraud
WHAT AN APPROPRIATE POSITION LOOKS LIKE
Interested, informed, and unconvinced by claims lacking evidence.
WHAT TO DO PROFESSIONALLY
Understand it well enough to advise honestly, including advising against.
WHAT TO TELL ANYONE ASKING
What is known, what is uncertain, and what the risks are.
