Staying informed sensibly.
WHAT MAKES THIS SECTOR DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW
Substantial financial incentive to promote Technical claims that cannot be casually evaluated Rapid change Genuine developments mixed with fabrication
WHAT SOURCES TO PREFER
Protocol documentation and specifications Research and analysis from parties without positions Independent security researchers Post-mortems of failures
WHY POST-MORTEMS SPECIFICALLY
They describe what actually happened, in detail.
WHAT SOURCES TO TREAT CAUTIOUSLY
Anyone holding the asset they discuss Publications funded by projects Anonymous accounts with large followings Price-focused commentary
WHAT TO ASK OF ANY COMMENTATOR
What do they hold, and what are they selling?
WHAT TO IGNORE
Price predictions Claims about adoption without evidence Partnership announcements with no detail
WHAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO
Security incidents and their causes Regulatory developments Whether applications have actual users Whether technical claims are independently verified
WHAT MEASURE IS MOST INFORMATIVE
Whether anyone uses it for something other than trading it.
WHAT TO DO WITH SOMETHING PROMISING
Note it, and revisit in six months.
WHY
Most does not survive that long.
