Practical prediction.
WHAT A FORECAST IS
An estimate of what is likely, based on what has happened.
WHAT IT IS NOT
A prediction A commitment Precise
WHAT MOST SMALL BUSINESSES NEED
Simple methods applied consistently.
THE SIMPLEST USEFUL METHOD
Last year's same period, adjusted for known changes.
For a seasonal business, frequently the best available.
THE NEXT SIMPLEST
An average of recent periods, projected forward.
WHAT TO ADJUST FOR
Known changes: a new product, a lost customer, a price change, a planned campaign
WHAT TO PRODUCE
A range rather than a single figure.
WHY A RANGE
It communicates uncertainty honestly, and it is more useful for planning.
WHAT TO RECORD
The forecast, so you can compare it against what happened.
WHY
That is how forecasting improves.
WHAT NOT TO DO
Present a forecast as certain Use a method you do not understand
