The distinction that matters most.
WHAT CORRELATION MEANS
Two things moving together.
WHAT IT DOES NOT MEAN
That one causes the other.
WHY THEY MOVE TOGETHER
One causes the other The other causes the one Both share a third cause Coincidence
THAT THIRD ONE
Extremely common and constantly overlooked.
Ice cream sales and sunburn rise together. Neither causes the other.
WHY THIS MATTERS COMMERCIALLY
Businesses attribute results to actions that did not cause them, and repeat them.
WHAT TO ASK
What else changed at the same time? Could both follow from something else? Did the effect follow the cause in time?
WHAT ESTABLISHES CAUSE MORE STRONGLY
Changing one thing deliberately and observing Comparing a group affected against one not affected
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU CANNOT ESTABLISH IT
Say so.
Treat it as a hypothesis, not a finding.
WHAT NOT TO DO
Build a strategy on an assumed cause.
