The summary.
THE STAGES
Expired auction, then last chance, then closeout. Prices generally fall at each stage.
The original owner may renew at any point before release. Nothing is certain until it is yours.
WHERE THE GOOD NAMES ARE
Last chance, frequently. Many perfectly usable names attract no bidder earlier simply because nobody noticed.
THE CLOSEOUT TEST
Would you register this name at the ordinary price if it were available?
If not, the low price does not make it worth holding. You still pay renewals.
THE CHECK PEOPLE SKIP
Previous use. A name used for spam or malware carries the problem forward, and changing hands does not clear it.
Archive services show what the site contained.
ON LINKS AND AGE
Neither automatically confers value, and claimed metrics you cannot verify are not evidence.
ON BACKORDERS
Most backordered names are simply renewed by their owners.
Place them on names you would genuinely buy, and consider alternatives meanwhile.