Figures are the highest-risk output.
WHY FIGURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
They carry authority They are rarely questioned They propagate once published They are easy to generate and hard to verify by eye
WHAT MODELS DO WITH FIGURES
Produce plausible ones.
Market sizes, growth rates, percentages, survey results, industry averages.
Many are invented entirely.
WHERE THIS CAUSES SERIOUS PROBLEMS
Business plans shown to lenders Funding applications Published research Marketing claims Reports to boards or regulators
THE ARITHMETIC PROBLEM, SEPARATELY
Models calculate unreliably. A sum may simply be wrong.
Use a spreadsheet.
WHAT TO DO
Never use a figure a model produced Find the real source Cite the source, not the model
FOR CALCULATIONS
Do them yourself, or in software built for it.
THE SIMPLE RULE
Every number in anything you publish should have a source you can name.
