Before you commit.
WHAT TO ASK
"Here is my idea. What assumptions does it depend on?" "Which of those assumptions is most likely to be wrong?" "How would I test that cheaply?"
THE ASSUMPTION QUESTION
The most valuable. Most failed businesses failed on an assumption nobody examined.
Common ones: that people have this problem, that they will pay to solve it, that they will pay you, that you can reach them affordably.
TESTING CHEAPLY
"What is the cheapest way to find out whether people will pay for this?"
The answer is usually: try to sell it before building it.
WHAT AI CANNOT TELL YOU
Whether the assumptions are true.
It identifies what to test. You test it.
THE COMPETITIVE QUESTION
"If this is a good idea, why is nobody doing it?"
Frequently there is a reason and finding it early is valuable.
WHAT TO BE WARY OF
Encouraging output. Models default to enthusiasm.
Present the idea as someone else's if you want honest assessment.
THE NEXT STEP
Talk to ten potential customers. That tells you more than any analysis.
