Realistic expectations.
WHAT SEEMS LIKELY
Continued improvement in reliability and reasoning Better integration into existing software, so it becomes ordinary rather than remarkable Wider use of agents performing multi-step tasks More capable smaller models, running locally Better handling of images, audio and video together
WHAT IS UNCERTAIN
Whether current approaches lead to genuinely reliable reasoning Whether hallucination is solvable or inherent How quickly regulation will shape deployment What the economic effects on employment will be
WHAT IS CONTESTED
Whether general intelligence is close, distant, or requires approaches not yet invented.
People who study this seriously disagree substantially.
Be sceptical of confident predictions in either direction.
WHAT TO EXPECT PRACTICALLY
AI capabilities embedded in tools you already use rather than as separate products Steady improvement rather than sudden transformation Continued need for human verification
WHAT NOT TO DO
Plan your business around capabilities that do not yet exist Assume current limitations are permanent
THE SENSIBLE POSITION
Use what works now. Reassess periodically.
